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“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”
If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.
Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
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One concern is the measure might force clubs to host matches outside the city to maintain their advertising agreements.
Stakeholders have yet to determine their response to the bills, with educational campaigns and collective actions on the agenda. Coordination with political leaders in the city of São Paulo is also under way.
Reinaldo Carneiro Bastos, president of the São Paulo Football Federation, expressed concern about the bill, saying: “If the city’s clubs lose this revenue, it will create a disparity that extends to the pitch.”
What is Hit The Route?
Belmont Park reopened for racing Friday (September 18) following a three-year, $455 million redevelopment, ushering in a new era for New York horse racing.
A sold-out crowd of 6,000 attended the first day of racing at the rebuilt Long Island track, wagering almost $14 million on a nine-race card headlined by the $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup.
Japanese star Forever Young won the feature race, while all-sources wagering for the day totaled $13,997,422, according to BloodHorse.