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What is Let It Burn?
A survey by Fullstory, a behavioral data analytics company, says that amid the evolution of yes/no exchanges, 60% of bettors said prediction markets are altering how they use sportsbooks with 35% admitting that they’ve reduced usage of traditional sports wagering platforms as access to sports event contracts increased.
“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”
A quarter of respondents said they use both prediction markets and sportsbooks depending on the event they’re considering wagering on. While the 35% reduced use figure may sound like a warning shot to gaming companies, a variety of other studies and surveys indicate that when bettors can choose between a sportsbook and an all-or-nothing exchange, they frequently opt for the former.
What is Let It Burn?
Before Patrick Mahomes laced up his cleats for his 2026-2027 NFL regular-season debut, US prediction markets had already cleared a historic benchmark for the opening week of the season.
Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.
Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
How to play Let It Burn
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) agrees, continuing to defend its claimed “exclusive jurisdiction” over sports prediction markets in federal and state courts across the nation.
The legal wrangling extends to Michigan, where Attorney General Dana Nessel has rejected Polymarket and the CFTC’s arguments that the Michigan Gaming Control Board has no regulatory authority over prediction markets, even the ones allowing traders to buy and sell shares of sports outcomes.
Since returning its prediction market to the US, Polymarket has regularly engaged in nonconforming advertising. Painting a water tower in the company’s blue and branding the structure with its logo is the firm’s latest marketing ploy.
