Hot Deco

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If it strikes a more reasonable balance that encourages economic development, “you will see the world’s best casino operators submit proposals”, he says. The government, he adds, must show it is prepared to give developers enough room to manage the risks of committing billions of dollars in capital.

Klebanow remains cautious about the commercial prospects of Japan’s emerging IR market, particularly given the tight limits on gaming capacity. With only five casinos ultimately envisaged, he argues that the number of gaming machines and tables will be modest relative to Japan’s population, making it “very safe to assume” that gambling will be socially and physically contained.

The bigger question, therefore, is whether such constraints will leave operators enough capacity to generate the returns needed to justify their investment.

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During the livestream, the president stated that he had spoken with a woman who said her 26-year-old son had taken his own life because of online betting. He also mentioned hearing from a bettor who had racked up BRL2 million ($388,410) in debt in just three months of wagering.

Lula said he intends to discuss the matter with his team and analyse potential measures to consider the social impact of online betting.

What the president does not acknowledge is that the government relies on revenue from the sector. In just the first seven months of 2026, BRL8.747 billion generated by sports betting has already flowed into public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service estimates the total could reach BRL16 billion by the end of the year. In 2025, nearly BRL9 billion was collected from sportsbooks.

About Hot Deco

The company must also provide data to the firms making markets on those events.

“If we just sold the data to Kalshi in order to list the markets but no one was coming in and placing liquidity, there’s no point in them listing the markets,” Monk said. “We also need to supply the data to the market makers to inform their models.”

Catalist initially received a list of fewer than 10 potential market makers from Kalshi. It has since completed agreements with close to 20 and is engaging with approximately another 20.